Podcast 1: The Model's Top 2026 Fantasy Football Quarterback Projections
The first Gridiron Value podcast is live. We start with the quarterback projection model, outcome ranges, and the players creating the best debates.
The first Gridiron Value podcast is live, and we started in the place that makes the most sense: the quarterback projection model.
You can watch the episode on YouTube here:
Watch Podcast 1: Gridiron Value QB Projections
The episode will also be part of the broader podcast rollout on Spotify and Apple Podcasts as those feeds come online. YouTube is the first place to watch the full version, and the audio feeds will make it easier to follow along during the season.
What The First Episode Covers
This first episode walks through the model’s current 2026 fantasy football quarterback projections and, more importantly, how to think about them.
A projection is not supposed to be treated like a prophecy. It is a modeled expectation inside a wider range of possible outcomes. That is why Gridiron Value uses language like:
- P50: the middle projection.
- P95: the upside outcome if more things break right.
- P5: the downside outcome if role, health, or team context breaks the wrong way.
Those ranges matter because fantasy football gets weird. Injuries happen. Depth charts change. Coaches lie. Players grow. Players fall off. The point of the model is not to pretend those things do not exist. The point is to create a baseline that can be updated, challenged, and used to make better decisions.
The Best Part Is The Disagreement
One of the themes from the episode is that the model and my personal opinion do not always land in the same place.
That is a feature, not a bug.
If every model output simply copied what I already believed, it would not be worth much. The useful moments come when the model forces a real question:
- Is this player being priced too safely?
- Is this projection missing context?
- Is the market holding onto an old version of the player?
- Is the upside real, or is it just a name we like?
That tension shows up in the quarterback discussion. Josh Allen is one example. The model can be more cautious than I would be personally, which creates a better conversation than just saying, “Josh Allen is good.”
Players Discussed
The quarterback episode gets into a wide group of players, including:
- Justin Herbert
- Jayden Daniels
- Dak Prescott
- Brock Purdy
- Lamar Jackson
- Jaxson Dart
- Josh Allen
- Jalen Hurts
- Trevor Lawrence
- Drake Maye
- Caleb Williams
- Bo Nix
- Matthew Stafford
- Kyler Murray
- Malik Willis
- Patrick Mahomes
- C.J. Stroud
Some of those names are model favorites. Some are disagreement points. Some are upside cases. Some are fades. That is the format I want for the podcast: model output first, football reasoning second, and honest pushback where it makes sense.
Where This Is Going
This is the start of the Gridiron Value content engine for the 2026 fantasy football season.
The goal is to make the model more useful by talking through it in public. The site can show the numbers, but the podcast gives us room to explain the assumptions, the uncertainty, and the places where the projection needs context.
The upcoming episodes will keep moving through projections, player values, draft strategy, and the parts of the model that should actually help you make decisions.
Follow along on YouTube now, and watch for Spotify and Apple Podcasts as the audio feeds roll out.