Week 4 fantasy projections, graded
Every Week 4 projection was locked before kickoff and is graded here against what actually happened: the hits, the misses, and the full table.
The Week 4 forecast was locked on Sunday, October 18, before any game kicked off, and covered 924 players. 358 of them recorded a final stat line and are graded here.
Across every graded player the average miss was 4.5 PPR points, and 66% of projections landed within five points of the real score (53% within three). Among the 121 players projected for at least 8 points, the ones that decide lineups, the average miss was 6.4.
Quarterbacks were the most predictable starters (average miss 4.4); wide receivers were the least (7.8).
The biggest surprise was Tetairoa McMillan, who scored 45.2 against a 10.8-point projection. The biggest letdown was Malik Willis: 2.5 points on a 15.9 projection.
How the projected starters did
Starters are the top projected players at each position in a 12-team league, chosen by the locked projection and never by the result.
| Position | Players graded | Average miss | Within 5 points | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks (top 12) | 12 | 4.4 | 67% | Projected 1.9 too high |
| Running backs (top 24) | 24 | 7.6 | 46% | Projected 5.1 too low |
| Wide receivers (top 36) | 36 | 7.8 | 47% | Projected 1.6 too low |
| Tight ends (top 12) | 12 | 4.6 | 50% | Even |
The projections that landed in Week 4
Players projected for at least 12 points, ordered by how close the forecast came.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | 17.1 | 17.0 | -0.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 15.7 | 16.0 | +0.3 |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | 19.0 | 18.5 | -0.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 15.0 | 15.5 | +0.5 |
| Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 15.0 | 15.6 | +0.6 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 12.4 | 11.7 | -0.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN | 12.1 | 11.0 | -1.1 |
| Tyler Shough QB · NO | 17.1 | 15.9 | -1.2 |
Who beat the projection by the most
Every graded player, ordered by points scored above the locked forecast.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 10.8 | 45.2 | +34.4 |
| CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 14.7 | 41.3 | +26.6 |
| Tyquan Thornton WR · KC | 4.0 | 28.1 | +24.1 |
| Kyren Williams RB · LA | 14.8 | 36.7 | +21.9 |
| Carnell Tate WR · TEN | 0.2 | 21.5 | +21.3 |
| Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 10.3 | 31.3 | +21.0 |
| Kyle Monangai RB · CHI | 8.2 | 28.0 | +19.8 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. RB · ATL | 6.3 | 25.7 | +19.4 |
Who fell furthest short
Only players projected for a playable 8+ points count as a miss.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis QB · MIA | 15.9 | 2.5 | -13.4 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT | 16.5 | 3.5 | -13.0 |
| Parker Washington WR · JAX | 14.9 | 2.0 | -12.9 |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 18.6 | 5.7 | -12.9 |
| Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | 12.7 | 0.0 | -12.7 |
| Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 20.2 | 9.6 | -10.7 |
| Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 12.3 | 2.0 | -10.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 23.0 | 13.1 | -9.9 |
Top 120 Week 4 projections vs. actual scores
Ordered by the locked projection, so the table shows what the model expected before it shows what happened.
| Rank | Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 23.0 | 13.1 | -9.9 |
| 2 | Drake Maye QB · NE | 21.2 | 26.2 | +5.0 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 20.2 | 9.6 | -10.7 |
| 4 | Josh Allen QB · BUF | 19.0 | 18.5 | -0.5 |
| 5 | Puka Nacua WR · LA | 18.6 | 27.7 | +9.1 |
| 6 | Joe Burrow QB · CIN | 18.6 | 23.7 | +5.2 |
| 7 | Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 18.6 | 5.7 | -12.9 |
| 8 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 18.4 | 12.6 | -5.8 |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford QB · LA | 17.7 | 9.7 | -8.1 |
| 10 | Bo Nix QB · DEN | 17.2 | 13.6 | -3.7 |
| 11 | Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | 17.1 | 17.0 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Brock Purdy QB · SF | 17.1 | 19.6 | +2.5 |
| 13 | Tyler Shough QB · NO | 17.1 | 15.9 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 17.1 | 27.7 | +10.6 |
| 15 | Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 16.9 | 13.3 | -3.6 |
| 16 | Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | 16.8 | 18.9 | +2.1 |
| 17 | Daniel Jones QB · IND | 16.7 | 7.9 | -8.8 |
| 18 | Chase Brown RB · CIN | 16.6 | 19.1 | +2.5 |
| 19 | Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT | 16.5 | 3.5 | -13.0 |
| 20 | Jalen Hurts QB · PHI | 16.4 | 13.5 | -2.9 |
| 21 | Dak Prescott QB · DAL | 16.2 | 18.1 | +1.9 |
| 22 | Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 16.0 | 25.8 | +9.8 |
| 23 | Malik Willis QB · MIA | 15.9 | 2.5 | -13.4 |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 15.8 | 22.0 | +6.1 |
| 25 | Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 15.7 | 16.0 | +0.3 |
| 26 | Chris Olave WR · NO | 15.3 | 19.6 | +4.3 |
| 27 | Bryce Young QB · CAR | 15.1 | 21.5 | +6.4 |
| 28 | Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 15.0 | 15.6 | +0.6 |
| 29 | Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 15.0 | 15.5 | +0.5 |
| 30 | Parker Washington WR · JAX | 14.9 | 2.0 | -12.9 |
| 31 | Jordan Love QB · GB | 14.9 | 13.1 | -1.8 |
| 32 | Kyren Williams RB · LA | 14.8 | 36.7 | +21.9 |
| 33 | Jared Goff QB · DET | 14.8 | 20.5 | +5.7 |
| 34 | CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 14.7 | 41.3 | +26.6 |
| 35 | Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | 14.6 | 5.7 | -8.9 |
| 36 | Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 |
| 37 | Brock Bowers TE · LV | 14.6 | 20.6 | +6.0 |
| 38 | C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | 14.5 | 23.1 | +8.6 |
| 39 | Kyler Murray QB · MIN | 14.5 | 11.5 | -3.0 |
| 40 | Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | 14.5 | 17.7 | +3.2 |
| 41 | DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 14.2 | 16.5 | +2.3 |
| 42 | Derrick Henry RB · BAL | 14.2 | 15.9 | +1.7 |
| 43 | Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | 13.7 | 22.7 | +9.0 |
| 44 | Hunter Henry TE · NE | 13.7 | 11.2 | -2.5 |
| 45 | Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | 13.7 | 30.9 | +17.2 |
| 46 | Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | 13.6 | 8.5 | -5.1 |
| 47 | Nico Collins WR · HOU | 13.6 | 30.8 | +17.2 |
| 48 | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | 13.2 | 8.8 | -4.5 |
| 49 | Drake London WR · ATL | 13.0 | 14.6 | +1.6 |
| 50 | Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | 12.8 | 5.0 | -7.8 |
| 51 | Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | 12.7 | 0.0 | -12.7 |
| 52 | Cam Ward QB · TEN | 12.6 | 15.6 | +2.9 |
| 53 | Kirk Cousins QB · LV | 12.6 | 22.6 | +10.0 |
| 54 | Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI | 12.5 | 10.4 | -2.1 |
| 55 | Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 12.4 | 11.7 | -0.7 |
| 56 | D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 12.3 | 7.4 | -4.9 |
| 57 | Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 12.3 | 23.8 | +11.5 |
| 58 | Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 12.3 | 2.0 | -10.3 |
| 59 | Christian Watson WR · GB | 12.2 | 7.7 | -4.5 |
| 60 | Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN | 12.1 | 11.0 | -1.1 |
| 61 | James Cook III RB · BUF | 12.1 | 16.3 | +4.2 |
| 62 | Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 12.1 | 9.7 | -2.4 |
| 63 | Davante Adams WR · LA | 12.1 | 7.2 | -4.9 |
| 64 | Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 12.0 | 6.3 | -5.7 |
| 65 | Trey McBride TE · ARI | 11.9 | 10.1 | -1.8 |
| 66 | Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | 11.9 | 13.3 | +1.4 |
| 67 | Kenny Gainwell RB · TB | 11.9 | 10.7 | -1.2 |
| 68 | Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 11.9 | 18.4 | +6.5 |
| 69 | TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE | 11.8 | 4.2 | -7.6 |
| 70 | Juwan Johnson TE · NO | 11.7 | 11.9 | +0.2 |
| 71 | Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | 11.7 | 16.8 | +5.1 |
| 72 | Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | 11.6 | 2.9 | -8.7 |
| 73 | Colston Loveland TE · CHI | 11.3 | 11.7 | +0.4 |
| 74 | George Kittle TE · SF | 11.2 | 17.0 | +5.8 |
| 75 | Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL | 11.2 | 7.7 | -3.5 |
| 76 | Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 11.1 | 25.9 | +14.8 |
| 77 | Rome Odunze WR · CHI | 11.0 | 15.4 | +4.4 |
| 78 | Travis Kelce TE · KC | 11.0 | 3.5 | -7.5 |
| 79 | Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 10.8 | 45.2 | +34.4 |
| 80 | Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE | 10.7 | 21.6 | +10.9 |
| 81 | George Pickens WR · DAL | 10.7 | 9.5 | -1.2 |
| 82 | Brenton Strange TE · JAX | 10.7 | 16.5 | +5.8 |
| 83 | Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 10.6 | 23.2 | +12.6 |
| 84 | Tee Higgins WR · CIN | 10.5 | 26.7 | +16.2 |
| 85 | Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | 10.3 | 9.1 | -1.2 |
| 86 | Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 10.3 | 31.3 | +21.0 |
| 87 | Sam LaPorta TE · DET | 10.2 | 22.4 | +12.2 |
| 88 | David Montgomery RB · HOU | 10.1 | 4.3 | -5.8 |
| 89 | DJ Moore WR · BUF | 10.0 | 2.7 | -7.3 |
| 90 | Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA | 9.9 | 12.3 | +2.4 |
| 91 | Tucker Kraft TE · GB | 9.9 | 16.5 | +6.6 |
| 92 | Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE | 9.7 | 6.6 | -3.1 |
| 93 | Mike Evans WR · SF | 9.7 | 12.6 | +2.9 |
| 94 | Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN | 9.7 | 14.5 | +4.8 |
| 95 | Jameson Williams WR · DET | 9.7 | 16.2 | +6.5 |
| 96 | T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN | 9.7 | 24.9 | +15.2 |
| 97 | Tre Tucker WR · LV | 9.6 | 8.4 | -1.2 |
| 98 | Alvin Kamara RB · NO | 9.6 | 22.8 | +13.2 |
| 99 | Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 9.6 | 13.0 | +3.4 |
| 100 | Bucky Irving RB · TB | 9.5 | 6.1 | -3.4 |
| 101 | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | 9.4 | 11.4 | +2.0 |
| 102 | Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | 9.4 | 13.2 | +3.8 |
| 103 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS | 9.2 | 7.0 | -2.2 |
| 104 | Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | 9.1 | 12.9 | +3.8 |
| 105 | Cade Otton TE · TB | 9.1 | 7.7 | -1.4 |
| 106 | Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | 9.1 | 3.3 | -5.8 |
| 107 | Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT | 9.0 | 10.7 | +1.7 |
| 108 | Mark Andrews TE · BAL | 9.0 | 13.7 | +4.7 |
| 109 | RJ Harvey RB · DEN | 8.9 | 19.3 | +10.4 |
| 110 | Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | 8.9 | 1.7 | -7.2 |
| 111 | Deebo Samuel WR · SF | 8.8 | 18.0 | +9.2 |
| 112 | Tyler Warren TE · IND | 8.6 | 9.1 | +0.5 |
| 113 | Courtland Sutton WR · DEN | 8.6 | 1.4 | -7.2 |
| 114 | Jordan Addison WR · MIN | 8.4 | 9.1 | +0.7 |
| 115 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX | 8.3 | 9.5 | +1.2 |
| 116 | Evan Engram TE · DEN | 8.3 | 1.6 | -6.7 |
| 117 | Xavier Worthy WR · KC | 8.2 | 11.0 | +2.8 |
| 118 | Jake Ferguson TE · DAL | 8.2 | 4.1 | -4.1 |
| 119 | Kyle Monangai RB · CHI | 8.2 | 28.0 | +19.8 |
| 120 | Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI | 8.1 | 12.9 | +4.8 |
Forecast locked Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:58:46 GMT · model avalanche_0.27.6_bucket_distribution_guard · content hash dc3a5406293bb62e…. The hash is computed when the forecast is frozen, so the graded numbers cannot be revised afterwards. Scoring is PPR. Players without a final stat line are not graded.