2026 season · projection accuracy

Projection accuracy, week by week

Each week’s projections are frozen and hashed before kickoff, then graded in public. Nothing is edited after the fact, and the misses stay up next to the hits.

See this week’s start/sit calls →

Season average miss4.4PPR points per player

Within 5 points68%of graded projections

Projections graded706across 2 weeks

2026 report cards

Every graded week

Open a week for the position breakdown, the closest calls, the biggest misses and the full projected-versus-actual table.

Week	Graded	Average miss	Lineup-relevant miss	Within 5	Biggest surprise	Biggest miss
Week 2	364	4.1	6.7	71%	Davante Adams (+28.2)	Jaxson Dart (-13.9)
Week 1	342	4.7	6.8	64%	Jalen Coker (+23.8)	Sam Darnold (-15.9)

How grading works: each week’s forecast is frozen and hashed before the first kickoff. After the games, every player with a final stat line is compared with that frozen number in PPR scoring. Average miss is the mean absolute error. See the methodology for how the projections are built.