Model Methodology

How Gridiron Value prices players.

A transparent guide to the projection, market, and format signals behind every published player value.

Season projection

The season projection estimates expected fantasy output. It is separate from market value and is shown with lower, median, and upper outcome bands when available.

P5 represents a lower modeled outcome.
P50 is the median season outcome.
P95 represents an upper modeled outcome.

Gridiron Value

Gridiron Value translates projected production into a 0-100 player price using format, age, role runway, positional demand, and market context.

Dynasty and redraft use separate presets.
Superflex changes quarterback replacement cost.
Tight end premium changes reception value and scarcity.

Weekly value movement

Weekly movement compares the latest Gridiron Value with the prior stored update and should start a review, not end one.

Positive movement indicates a higher current model value.
Negative movement indicates a lower current model value.
Role, projection, age, and league preset can all affect the change.

Limitations

No public model knows private injury information, coaching plans, or future depth-chart decisions. Outputs should be paired with current news and league context.

Small score differences are rarely meaningful.
Tier breaks matter more than decimal precision.
Preset values are not custom league models.