Week 1 fantasy projections, graded
Every Week 1 projection was locked before kickoff and is graded here against what actually happened: the hits, the misses, and the full table.
The Week 1 forecast was locked on Tuesday, September 8, before any game kicked off, and covered 575 players. 342 of them recorded a final stat line and are graded here.
Across every graded player the average miss was 4.7 PPR points, and 64% of projections landed within five points of the real score (49% within three). Among the 143 players projected for at least 8 points, the ones that decide lineups, the average miss was 6.8.
Tight ends were the most predictable starters (average miss 6.5); running backs were the least (8.6).
The biggest surprise was Jalen Coker, who scored 33.8 against a 10.0-point projection. The biggest letdown was Sam Darnold: 0.5 points on a 16.5 projection.
How the projected starters did
Starters are the top projected players at each position in a 12-team league, chosen by the locked projection and never by the result.
| Position | Players graded | Average miss | Within 5 points | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks (top 12) | 12 | 6.7 | 42% | Even |
| Running backs (top 24) | 24 | 8.6 | 38% | Projected 2.4 too low |
| Wide receivers (top 36) | 36 | 6.6 | 36% | Projected 1.0 too high |
| Tight ends (top 12) | 12 | 6.5 | 42% | Projected 0.8 too high |
The projections that landed in Week 1
Players projected for at least 12 points, ordered by how close the forecast came.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams RB · LA | 15.8 | 15.5 | -0.3 |
| Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 13.4 | 12.9 | -0.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 15.9 | 15.4 | -0.5 |
| Kirk Cousins QB · LV | 14.5 | 13.8 | -0.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 13.7 | 14.5 | +0.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 13.0 | 12.2 | -0.8 |
| C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | 15.4 | 16.5 | +1.0 |
| Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | 14.2 | 15.5 | +1.3 |
Who beat the projection by the most
Every graded player, ordered by points scored above the locked forecast.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 10.0 | 33.8 | +23.8 |
| Caleb Williams QB · CHI | 16.4 | 37.3 | +20.9 |
| Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | 14.1 | 34.1 | +20.0 |
| Christian Watson WR · GB | 12.9 | 32.7 | +19.8 |
| David Montgomery RB · HOU | 10.1 | 28.9 | +18.8 |
| Carson Wentz QB · MIN | 0.5 | 19.2 | +18.7 |
| Isaiah Likely TE · NYG | 9.1 | 27.8 | +18.7 |
| D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 14.0 | 32.4 | +18.4 |
Who fell furthest short
Only players projected for a playable 8+ points count as a miss.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 16.5 | 0.5 | -15.9 |
| Kyler Murray QB · MIN | 15.4 | -0.4 | -15.8 |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 18.6 | 3.2 | -15.4 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG | 12.9 | -0.6 | -13.5 |
| Matthew Stafford QB · LA | 16.2 | 4.1 | -12.1 |
| Bo Nix QB · DEN | 17.3 | 5.4 | -11.8 |
| De'Von Achane RB · MIA | 22.3 | 10.6 | -11.7 |
| Colston Loveland TE · CHI | 11.4 | 0.0 | -11.4 |
Top 120 Week 1 projections vs. actual scores
Ordered by the locked projection, so the table shows what the model expected before it shows what happened.
| Rank | Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | 23.4 | 33.6 | +10.2 |
| 2 | De'Von Achane RB · MIA | 22.3 | 10.6 | -11.7 |
| 3 | Jaxson Dart QB · NYG | 20.6 | 26.6 | +6.0 |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 20.5 | 31.3 | +10.8 |
| 5 | Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 20.1 | 13.3 | -6.9 |
| 6 | Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 19.8 | 13.8 | -6.0 |
| 7 | Malik Willis QB · MIA | 19.8 | 16.7 | -3.1 |
| 8 | Puka Nacua WR · LA | 19.7 | 12.4 | -7.3 |
| 9 | Drake Maye QB · NE | 19.7 | 9.8 | -9.9 |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 19.6 | 26.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | Josh Allen QB · BUF | 19.4 | 35.7 | +16.3 |
| 12 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 19.1 | 26.2 | +7.1 |
| 13 | Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 18.6 | 3.2 | -15.4 |
| 14 | Jared Goff QB · DET | 18.3 | 16.4 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Derrick Henry RB · BAL | 18.0 | 35.3 | +17.3 |
| 16 | Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 17.8 | 26.0 | +8.2 |
| 17 | Chris Olave WR · NO | 17.4 | 28.2 | +10.8 |
| 18 | Bo Nix QB · DEN | 17.3 | 5.4 | -11.8 |
| 19 | Joe Burrow QB · CIN | 17.1 | 14.2 | -3.0 |
| 20 | Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | 17.1 | 21.7 | +4.6 |
| 21 | Dak Prescott QB · DAL | 17.0 | 14.4 | -2.6 |
| 22 | Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | 17.0 | 25.0 | +7.9 |
| 23 | Jalen Hurts QB · PHI | 16.9 | 24.7 | +7.8 |
| 24 | Chase Brown RB · CIN | 16.9 | 18.8 | +1.9 |
| 25 | Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 16.8 | 32.7 | +15.9 |
| 26 | Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 16.8 | 28.7 | +11.9 |
| 27 | Brock Purdy QB · SF | 16.7 | 21.1 | +4.4 |
| 28 | Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | 16.5 | 8.3 | -8.2 |
| 29 | Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 16.5 | 0.5 | -15.9 |
| 30 | Caleb Williams QB · CHI | 16.4 | 37.3 | +20.9 |
| 31 | Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 16.4 | 12.5 | -3.8 |
| 32 | Tyler Shough QB · NO | 16.4 | 23.2 | +6.8 |
| 33 | Nico Collins WR · HOU | 16.2 | 21.2 | +5.0 |
| 34 | Matthew Stafford QB · LA | 16.2 | 4.1 | -12.1 |
| 35 | Bryce Young QB · CAR | 15.9 | 31.4 | +15.5 |
| 36 | CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 15.9 | 15.4 | -0.5 |
| 37 | Baker Mayfield QB · TB | 15.9 | 11.6 | -4.2 |
| 38 | Kyren Williams RB · LA | 15.8 | 15.5 | -0.3 |
| 39 | A.J. Brown WR · NE | 15.7 | 5.6 | -10.1 |
| 40 | Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | 15.5 | 25.1 | +9.6 |
| 41 | Kyler Murray QB · MIN | 15.4 | -0.4 | -15.8 |
| 42 | C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | 15.4 | 16.5 | +1.0 |
| 43 | Jordan Love QB · GB | 15.3 | 19.5 | +4.1 |
| 44 | Cam Ward QB · TEN | 15.3 | 11.7 | -3.6 |
| 45 | Breece Hall RB · NYJ | 15.1 | 19.8 | +4.7 |
| 46 | Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 14.9 | 24.2 | +9.3 |
| 47 | Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 14.9 | 10.3 | -4.6 |
| 48 | Daniel Jones QB · IND | 14.9 | 9.0 | -5.8 |
| 49 | Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI | 14.6 | 16.5 | +1.9 |
| 50 | Drake London WR · ATL | 14.5 | 5.5 | -9.0 |
| 51 | Kirk Cousins QB · LV | 14.5 | 13.8 | -0.7 |
| 52 | Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 14.5 | 31.2 | +16.7 |
| 53 | Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN | 14.4 | 8.8 | -5.6 |
| 54 | Jameson Williams WR · DET | 14.4 | 8.5 | -5.9 |
| 55 | Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | 14.2 | 15.5 | +1.3 |
| 56 | Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | 14.1 | 17.7 | +3.6 |
| 57 | Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | 14.1 | 34.1 | +20.0 |
| 58 | DeVonta Smith WR · PHI | 14.0 | 8.3 | -5.7 |
| 59 | D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 14.0 | 32.4 | +18.4 |
| 60 | DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 14.0 | 8.0 | -6.0 |
| 61 | Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 14.0 | 4.4 | -9.6 |
| 62 | Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 13.8 | 9.0 | -4.8 |
| 63 | Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT | 13.8 | 8.8 | -5.0 |
| 64 | Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 13.7 | 14.5 | +0.8 |
| 65 | Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | 13.6 | 19.2 | +5.6 |
| 66 | George Pickens WR · DAL | 13.5 | 5.8 | -7.7 |
| 67 | Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 13.4 | 12.9 | -0.5 |
| 68 | Rico Dowdle RB · PIT | 13.3 | 4.1 | -9.2 |
| 69 | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | 13.3 | 9.3 | -4.0 |
| 70 | Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 13.1 | 23.7 | +10.6 |
| 71 | Rashee Rice WR · KC | 13.1 | 9.9 | -3.2 |
| 72 | Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 13.0 | 12.2 | -0.8 |
| 73 | Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 13.0 | 3.4 | -9.6 |
| 74 | Michael Wilson WR · ARI | 12.9 | 10.6 | -2.3 |
| 75 | Christian Watson WR · GB | 12.9 | 32.7 | +19.8 |
| 76 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG | 12.9 | -0.6 | -13.5 |
| 77 | Parker Washington WR · JAX | 12.9 | 19.3 | +6.4 |
| 78 | Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 12.9 | 10.5 | -2.4 |
| 79 | James Cook III RB · BUF | 12.8 | 9.9 | -2.9 |
| 80 | Tee Higgins WR · CIN | 12.7 | 8.9 | -3.8 |
| 81 | Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | 12.6 | 10.0 | -2.6 |
| 82 | Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO | 12.3 | 14.8 | +2.5 |
| 83 | Bucky Irving RB · TB | 12.3 | 20.3 | +8.0 |
| 84 | Courtland Sutton WR · DEN | 12.1 | 3.1 | -9.0 |
| 85 | Trey McBride TE · ARI | 12.1 | 24.5 | +12.4 |
| 86 | Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | 12.1 | 13.9 | +1.8 |
| 87 | Malik Washington WR · MIA | 12.0 | 6.3 | -5.7 |
| 88 | Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | 12.0 | 3.7 | -8.3 |
| 89 | Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE | 12.0 | 4.6 | -7.4 |
| 90 | Deebo Samuel WR · SF | 11.6 | 18.0 | +6.4 |
| 91 | Juwan Johnson TE · NO | 11.5 | 14.4 | +2.9 |
| 92 | Kenny Gainwell RB · TB | 11.5 | 2.8 | -8.7 |
| 93 | Colston Loveland TE · CHI | 11.4 | 0.0 | -11.4 |
| 94 | Tyjae Spears RB · TEN | 11.4 | 4.4 | -7.0 |
| 95 | RJ Harvey RB · DEN | 11.3 | 8.1 | -3.2 |
| 96 | Rachaad White RB · WAS | 11.2 | 4.7 | -6.5 |
| 97 | Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | 11.0 | 8.3 | -2.7 |
| 98 | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | 11.0 | 9.5 | -1.5 |
| 99 | Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | 11.0 | 14.0 | +3.0 |
| 100 | Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE | 10.7 | 7.0 | -3.7 |
| 101 | Sam LaPorta TE · DET | 10.6 | 9.8 | -0.8 |
| 102 | Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | 10.6 | 7.5 | -3.1 |
| 103 | DJ Moore WR · BUF | 10.6 | 21.0 | +10.4 |
| 104 | Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN | 10.5 | 1.2 | -9.3 |
| 105 | Alec Pierce WR · IND | 10.5 | 10.1 | -0.4 |
| 106 | Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 10.4 | 7.0 | -3.4 |
| 107 | Tre Tucker WR · LV | 10.4 | 4.7 | -5.7 |
| 108 | Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA | 10.2 | 0.3 | -9.9 |
| 109 | David Montgomery RB · HOU | 10.1 | 28.9 | +18.8 |
| 110 | Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| 111 | Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 10.0 | 33.8 | +23.8 |
| 112 | George Kittle TE · SF | 9.9 | 3.2 | -6.7 |
| 113 | Travis Kelce TE · KC | 9.8 | 10.1 | +0.3 |
| 114 | Mike Evans WR · SF | 9.7 | 16.9 | +7.2 |
| 115 | Jayden Reed WR · GB | 9.7 | 5.0 | -4.7 |
| 116 | Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | 9.7 | 11.3 | +1.6 |
| 117 | Keenan Allen WR · IND | 9.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 118 | Woody Marks RB · HOU | 9.7 | 5.0 | -4.7 |
| 119 | Tucker Kraft TE · GB | 9.7 | 9.5 | -0.2 |
| 120 | Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 9.6 | 0.0 | -9.6 |
Forecast locked Tue, 08 Sep 2026 17:03:47 GMT · model avalanche_0.27.7_game_context_coverage · content hash 0af1522df6df4406…. The hash is computed when the forecast is frozen, so the graded numbers cannot be revised afterwards. Scoring is PPR. Players without a final stat line are not graded.