Week 2 fantasy projections, graded
Every Week 2 projection was locked before kickoff and is graded here against what actually happened: the hits, the misses, and the full table.
The Week 2 forecast was locked on Tuesday, September 15, before any game kicked off, and covered 924 players. 364 of them recorded a final stat line and are graded here.
Across every graded player the average miss was 4.1 PPR points, and 71% of projections landed within five points of the real score (57% within three). Among the 127 players projected for at least 8 points, the ones that decide lineups, the average miss was 6.7.
Running backs were the most predictable starters (average miss 5.0); quarterbacks were the least (10.0).
The biggest surprise was Davante Adams, who scored 39.5 against a 11.3-point projection. The biggest letdown was Jaxson Dart: 0.8 points on a 14.7 projection.
How the projected starters did
Starters are the top projected players at each position in a 12-team league, chosen by the locked projection and never by the result.
| Position | Players graded | Average miss | Within 5 points | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks (top 12) | 12 | 10.0 | 25% | Projected 1.5 too low |
| Running backs (top 24) | 24 | 5.0 | 58% | Projected 1.0 too high |
| Wide receivers (top 36) | 36 | 8.0 | 36% | Projected 0.7 too low |
| Tight ends (top 12) | 12 | 8.3 | 17% | Projected 3.2 too low |
The projections that landed in Week 2
Players projected for at least 12 points, ordered by how close the forecast came.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall RB · NYJ | 14.1 | 14.2 | +0.1 |
| Jordan Love QB · GB | 14.0 | 13.8 | -0.2 |
| Kyren Williams RB · LA | 16.1 | 15.7 | -0.4 |
| Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 12.2 | 12.6 | +0.4 |
| Bucky Irving RB · TB | 13.6 | 13.0 | -0.6 |
| Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | 15.5 | 14.7 | -0.8 |
| Joe Burrow QB · CIN | 15.2 | 16.2 | +1.0 |
| Malik Willis QB · MIA | 13.5 | 12.5 | -1.1 |
Who beat the projection by the most
Every graded player, ordered by points scored above the locked forecast.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams WR · LA | 11.3 | 39.5 | +28.2 |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | 19.8 | 40.8 | +21.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 21.6 | 42.5 | +20.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 16.1 | 35.2 | +19.1 |
| CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 17.0 | 35.3 | +18.3 |
| Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | 8.3 | 26.0 | +17.7 |
| Cody White WR · SEA | 0.3 | 16.4 | +16.1 |
| Terrance Ferguson TE · LA | 1.4 | 17.4 | +16.0 |
Who fell furthest short
Only players projected for a playable 8+ points count as a miss.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart QB · NYG | 14.7 | 0.8 | -13.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 19.6 | 6.2 | -13.4 |
| DJ Moore WR · BUF | 12.7 | -0.1 | -12.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 15.7 | 3.6 | -12.1 |
| Drake Maye QB · NE | 19.0 | 8.0 | -11.0 |
| Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 18.8 | 7.9 | -11.0 |
| Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 14.3 | 3.8 | -10.5 |
Top 120 Week 2 projections vs. actual scores
Ordered by the locked projection, so the table shows what the model expected before it shows what happened.
| Rank | Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 21.6 | 42.5 | +20.9 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 20.8 | 11.1 | -9.7 |
| 3 | Josh Allen QB · BUF | 19.8 | 40.8 | +21.0 |
| 4 | Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 19.6 | 6.2 | -13.4 |
| 5 | Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 19.1 | 22.6 | +3.5 |
| 6 | Drake Maye QB · NE | 19.0 | 8.0 | -11.0 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 18.8 | 7.9 | -11.0 |
| 8 | Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | 18.7 | 14.8 | -3.9 |
| 9 | Jalen Hurts QB · PHI | 17.9 | 16.2 | -1.7 |
| 10 | Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | 17.7 | 29.0 | +11.3 |
| 11 | Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 17.3 | 26.5 | +9.2 |
| 12 | Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | 17.3 | 23.3 | +6.0 |
| 13 | CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 17.0 | 35.3 | +18.3 |
| 14 | Brock Purdy QB · SF | 16.9 | 28.5 | +11.6 |
| 15 | Bo Nix QB · DEN | 16.2 | 14.1 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 16.1 | 35.2 | +19.1 |
| 17 | Kyren Williams RB · LA | 16.1 | 15.7 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Dak Prescott QB · DAL | 15.9 | 29.8 | +13.9 |
| 19 | Caleb Williams QB · CHI | 15.9 | 7.7 | -8.1 |
| 20 | Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | 15.8 | 6.5 | -9.3 |
| 21 | Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 15.7 | 3.6 | -12.1 |
| 22 | DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 15.6 | 6.7 | -8.9 |
| 23 | Matthew Stafford QB · LA | 15.6 | 27.0 | +11.4 |
| 24 | Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | 15.5 | 23.8 | +8.3 |
| 25 | Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | 15.5 | 14.7 | -0.8 |
| 26 | De'Von Achane RB · MIA | 15.5 | 12.3 | -3.2 |
| 27 | Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 15.5 | 10.3 | -5.2 |
| 28 | Baker Mayfield QB · TB | 15.5 | 12.2 | -3.3 |
| 29 | Jared Goff QB · DET | 15.3 | 29.8 | +14.5 |
| 30 | Joe Burrow QB · CIN | 15.2 | 16.2 | +1.0 |
| 31 | Derrick Henry RB · BAL | 15.2 | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 32 | Rashee Rice WR · KC | 14.8 | 12.3 | -2.5 |
| 33 | C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | 14.7 | 17.0 | +2.3 |
| 34 | Jaxson Dart QB · NYG | 14.7 | 0.8 | -13.9 |
| 35 | Drew Lock QB · SEA | 14.6 | 21.4 | +6.8 |
| 36 | Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 14.6 | 8.0 | -6.6 |
| 37 | Chase Brown RB · CIN | 14.6 | 11.2 | -3.4 |
| 38 | Tyler Shough QB · NO | 14.6 | 22.4 | +7.8 |
| 39 | James Cook III RB · BUF | 14.6 | 20.9 | +6.3 |
| 40 | Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 14.3 | 3.8 | -10.5 |
| 41 | Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | 14.2 | 17.5 | +3.3 |
| 42 | Breece Hall RB · NYJ | 14.1 | 14.2 | +0.1 |
| 43 | Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 14.1 | 8.5 | -5.6 |
| 44 | Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | 14.0 | 29.2 | +15.2 |
| 45 | D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 14.0 | 12.9 | -1.1 |
| 46 | Drake London WR · ATL | 14.0 | 8.9 | -5.1 |
| 47 | Jordan Love QB · GB | 14.0 | 13.8 | -0.2 |
| 48 | Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 13.9 | 4.0 | -9.9 |
| 49 | Daniel Jones QB · IND | 13.8 | 11.4 | -2.4 |
| 50 | George Pickens WR · DAL | 13.6 | 10.0 | -3.6 |
| 51 | Bucky Irving RB · TB | 13.6 | 13.0 | -0.6 |
| 52 | Malik Willis QB · MIA | 13.5 | 12.5 | -1.1 |
| 53 | Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 |
| 54 | Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 |
| 55 | Bryce Young QB · CAR | 13.4 | 24.1 | +10.7 |
| 56 | Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | 13.3 | 21.7 | +8.4 |
| 57 | Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | 13.1 | 16.7 | +3.6 |
| 58 | Chris Olave WR · NO | 13.0 | 22.6 | +9.6 |
| 59 | Christian Watson WR · GB | 12.9 | 14.1 | +1.2 |
| 60 | Parker Washington WR · JAX | 12.9 | 16.8 | +3.9 |
| 61 | DeVonta Smith WR · PHI | 12.8 | 27.7 | +14.9 |
| 62 | Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 12.7 | 9.7 | -3.0 |
| 63 | DJ Moore WR · BUF | 12.7 | -0.1 | -12.8 |
| 64 | Tee Higgins WR · CIN | 12.3 | 14.5 | +2.2 |
| 65 | Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 12.2 | 12.6 | +0.4 |
| 66 | Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | 12.2 | 2.4 | -9.8 |
| 67 | Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 12.0 | 14.4 | +2.4 |
| 68 | Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | 11.9 | 19.7 | +7.8 |
| 69 | Courtland Sutton WR · DEN | 11.9 | 5.5 | -6.4 |
| 70 | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | 11.8 | 15.6 | +3.8 |
| 71 | Travis Kelce TE · KC | 11.7 | 25.1 | +13.4 |
| 72 | Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 11.6 | 15.1 | +3.5 |
| 73 | Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI | 11.5 | 6.5 | -5.0 |
| 74 | Trey McBride TE · ARI | 11.5 | 18.1 | +6.6 |
| 75 | Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN | 11.4 | 1.9 | -9.5 |
| 76 | David Montgomery RB · HOU | 11.4 | 4.4 | -7.0 |
| 77 | Kirk Cousins QB · LV | 11.4 | 20.2 | +8.8 |
| 78 | Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | 11.3 | 22.5 | +11.2 |
| 79 | Davante Adams WR · LA | 11.3 | 39.5 | +28.2 |
| 80 | Cam Ward QB · TEN | 11.2 | 20.0 | +8.9 |
| 81 | Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | 11.1 | 10.3 | -0.8 |
| 82 | Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO | 11.0 | 7.1 | -3.9 |
| 83 | Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE | 11.0 | 9.8 | -1.2 |
| 84 | Jameson Williams WR · DET | 10.9 | 5.3 | -5.6 |
| 85 | Hunter Henry TE · NE | 10.8 | 7.0 | -3.8 |
| 86 | Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 10.8 | 7.5 | -3.3 |
| 87 | George Kittle TE · SF | 10.8 | 18.0 | +7.2 |
| 88 | Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 10.7 | 7.0 | -3.7 |
| 89 | Deebo Samuel WR · SF | 10.7 | 6.5 | -4.2 |
| 90 | Mike Evans WR · SF | 10.2 | 8.4 | -1.8 |
| 91 | Michael Wilson WR · ARI | 10.2 | 3.8 | -6.4 |
| 92 | Jayden Reed WR · GB | 10.2 | 1.4 | -8.8 |
| 93 | Cooper Kupp WR · SEA | 10.0 | 4.0 | -6.0 |
| 94 | Rico Dowdle RB · PIT | 9.9 | 6.4 | -3.5 |
| 95 | Kenny Gainwell RB · TB | 9.7 | 4.5 | -5.2 |
| 96 | Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | 9.7 | 6.8 | -2.9 |
| 97 | Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | 9.6 | 10.5 | +0.9 |
| 98 | Tre Tucker WR · LV | 9.6 | 22.9 | +13.3 |
| 99 | Rome Odunze WR · CHI | 9.6 | 7.3 | -2.3 |
| 100 | DeMario Douglas WR · NE | 9.5 | 1.9 | -7.6 |
| 101 | Rachaad White RB · WAS | 9.5 | 14.3 | +4.8 |
| 102 | Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 9.3 | 10.4 | +1.1 |
| 103 | Mack Hollins WR · NE | 9.3 | 3.8 | -5.5 |
| 104 | Tucker Kraft TE · GB | 9.2 | 3.5 | -5.7 |
| 105 | Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE | 9.2 | 0.0 | -9.2 |
| 106 | Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 9.1 | 14.6 | +5.5 |
| 107 | Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA | 9.1 | 6.9 | -2.2 |
| 108 | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | 9.1 | 6.2 | -2.9 |
| 109 | TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE | 9.1 | 13.6 | +4.5 |
| 110 | Alec Pierce WR · IND | 9.1 | 2.1 | -7.0 |
| 111 | Tyjae Spears RB · TEN | 9.1 | 9.0 | -0.1 |
| 112 | Keenan Allen WR · IND | 9.1 | 1.5 | -7.6 |
| 113 | Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN | 9.0 | 21.8 | +12.8 |
| 114 | Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL | 8.9 | 2.5 | -6.4 |
| 115 | Malik Washington WR · MIA | 8.9 | 8.7 | -0.2 |
| 116 | Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 8.7 | 1.1 | -7.6 |
| 117 | Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | 8.6 | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 118 | Dallas Goedert TE · PHI | 8.6 | 1.4 | -7.2 |
| 119 | Cam Skattebo RB · NYG | 8.6 | 9.5 | +0.9 |
| 120 | Jake Ferguson TE · DAL | 8.5 | 20.3 | +11.8 |
Forecast locked Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:18:12 GMT · model avalanche_0.27.7_game_context_coverage · content hash 1ac05eda98daabf5…. The hash is computed when the forecast is frozen, so the graded numbers cannot be revised afterwards. Scoring is PPR. Players without a final stat line are not graded.